There's something about completing another trip around the sun that compels us towards introspection and prediction. "Should auld acquaintances" and new resolutions and all that.

 

Back in 1988, just over twenty years ago and just before I joined Microsoft, I remember making two predictions about the next decade: 1. nobody would be wearing glasses anymore, and 2. cigarettes would be an historical curiosity that nobody could imagine actually setting on fire and sticking in their mouth. I was wrong on both.

 

Ten years ago, the Internet was starting to take off and I could imagine a world where nearly everyone had email and where one could look up product information from major manufacturers on-line, but the potential to dramatically change common modes of human interaction completely eluded me. I still find it staggering to observe how much has changed so quickly. It wasn't that long ago that connected home computers were a geeky curiosity. They went from that to ubiquity nearly overnight. Imagine you're starting a company and need to find a good URL. No matter how obscure your product or service, the first twenty URLs you try are already taken.

 

Today, it's very exciting to be in the middle of this revolution. Watching the world fly by is fun, but having a role to play where they let me drive the bus a little is exhilarating.

 

But that was then and now. The trick is prediction, extrapolation, made harder not just by the increasing innovation but by the increasing rate of change of innovation. What will the world look like in ten years? What new capabilities will we take for granted? What new social activities will be possible? What new dangers will kids have to watch out for? It's mind-boggling.